South African motorists are facing a mixed fuel price outlook for August, with diesel users bearing the brunt of the anticipated adjustments while petrol users could enjoy minor relief at the pumps.
According to the latest unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), diesel prices are set to rise sharply. Increases of around 65 cents per litre for 50ppm and 66 cents for 500ppm are currently projected. If the current market trends continue until month end, these hikes could exceed 70 cents per litre, pushing inland diesel prices to levels last seen in early 2024.
The sharp diesel increase is primarily driven by rising international demand, particularly in the northern hemisphere’s summer season, where diesel consumption typically spikes due to higher transport and economic activity. These seasonal patterns often lead to elevated diesel prices globally, despite relative stability in crude oil benchmarks.
On the petrol front, some modest relief may be on the cards. The data points to a decrease of 24 cents per litre for 95 Unleaded and 28 cents for 93 Unleaded. However, as price trends fluctuate daily, the final decrease could be smaller – or even reversed – if international product prices climb before month-end.
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Should the decreases materialise as predicted, motorists could expect to pay approximately R20.78 per litre for 95 ULP at coastal regions, and around R21.57 in Gauteng. The inland price for 93 ULP is forecast to settle near R21.49.
The fuel price adjustments are influenced by a combination of international product price movements and the strength of the rand. While global Brent crude oil prices have remained relatively stable in July, ranging between $67 and $70 per barrel, the slightly stronger rand has contributed around five cents worth of cushioning.
July marked the first fuel price hike in five months, with diesel climbing by up to 84 cents and petrol rising by as much as 55 cents per litre. Although petrol remains close to its January 2025 level, the upcoming changes are a stark reminder of the volatility in global fuel markets, especially for diesel consumers who are once again under pressure.
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