South Africa’s trucking industry could be in for another serious fuel-price headache in September, with diesel currently showing an under-recovery of close to R3 a litre.
The latest fuel-price figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to a potential increase of around R2.85 a litre for 500ppm diesel and R3.05 a litre for 50ppm diesel if current trends continue until the end of August.
That would be another major blow for transport operators already dealing with soaring operating costs.
A R3 increase can quickly become thousands of rands
For a truck taking on 500 litres of diesel, an increase of R3 a litre would add roughly R1,500 to the cost of a fill-up.
At 1,000 litres, the additional cost would be about R3,000.
And for fleets running multiple trucks every day, the impact quickly runs into tens or even hundreds of thousands of rands.
The latest CEF-linked figures have already shown diesel facing significantly larger increases than petrol. Mid-August data indicated under-recoveries of R2.73 for 500ppm and R2.89 for 50ppm diesel.
Petrol prices are also heading higher
Petrol is also showing an increase for September.
Current indications point to increases of around 80 cents a litre for 93 Unleaded and 90 cents for 95 Unleaded.
If the recent deterioration in the fuel-price picture continues, petrol increases could potentially move into the R1 to R1.10-a-litre range before the final September adjustment is announced.
Middle East conflict keeps pressure on diesel
The major driver behind the latest increases is the continued volatility in international oil markets.
Brent crude has climbed sharply as the conflict in the Middle East and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continue to create uncertainty in global oil and fuel markets.
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South Africa’s monthly fuel-price adjustments are heavily influenced by international petroleum prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate.
Truckers could feel the pain first
The potential September increase comes after an already brutal few months for diesel users.
The wholesale price of diesel has risen sharply since March, while August brought another increase even as petrol prices received a small cut.
If the current CEF numbers hold, September could therefore bring another substantial increase for the trucking industry.
It is important to note that these are not yet the official September fuel prices. The CEF recovery figures can change significantly before month-end, meaning the final increase could be lower – or even higher – than the current indication.
For truckers and transport operators, however, the warning is already clear: September could be another expensive month at the diesel pump.
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