Diesel relief on the cards as October fuel forecast shows positive changes

South African motorists can look forward to another relatively calm month at the pumps, with October’s fuel price outlook showing only small changes on the horizon.

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a possible increase of around 15 cents for 95 Unleaded and 7 cents for 93 Unleaded.

Diesel, however, is shaping up for a further decrease of about 8 cents for both grades if current trends hold.

This follows September’s welcome cuts, which saw petrol prices dip by 4 cents and diesel drop by between 56 and 57 cents.

- Advertisement -

At present, 95 Unleaded is retailing at R20.76 per litre at the coast and R21.55 inland, while 93 Unleaded is priced at R21.47 in Gauteng. The wholesale cost of 50ppm diesel sits at R18.71 at the coast and R19.47 inland.

Read | Transnet narrows Losses to R1.9bn from R7.3bn as Rail Volumes Surge

Lebo Ramolahloane, National Vice Chairperson of the South African Petroleum Retailers Association (SAPRA), says the continued decline in diesel costs is a significant boost for the economy. “Households and businesses have been under immense strain from months of volatility.

This decrease brings real relief. Diesel’s sharp drop is especially positive for transport, agriculture, and logistics – sectors that carry the economy and directly impact consumer costs,” he said.

The positive trend is being driven largely by a stronger rand, which has staged a remarkable comeback this year. Trading at R17.39 to the US dollar on Wednesday, the local currency has bounced back from nearly hitting R20 in April, helping offset higher international oil prices.

If the forecasts hold, South Africans could see fuel prices in October staying close to their January 2025 levels – offering some much-needed breathing space as the year winds down.