Here’s What Diesel and Petrol Are Likely to Cost from February 4

Truckers and fleet operators are set for more relief at the pumps this week, with diesel prices expected to come down again from Wednesday, 4 February. Petrol prices are also heading lower, continuing a welcome trend that has eased pressure on transport costs since the start of the year.

Late-month, unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund indicates that diesel prices could drop by around 50 cents per litre for 500ppm and up to 56 cents per litre for 50ppm. For operators clocking serious kilometres every month, that kind of drop translates into meaningful savings on fuel bills.

If these projections are confirmed, the wholesale price of 50ppm diesel is expected to fall to roughly R17.20 per litre at the coast and about R17.96 inland. With margins already tight across the freight sector, especially on long haul routes, this comes as a bit of breathing space for transporters.

Petrol prices are also expected to decrease. Current data points to a cut of around 64 cents per litre. This should see the price of 95 Unleaded drop to about R19.28 at the coast and around R20.11 in Gauteng. Inland motorists using 93 Unleaded could be paying close to R20.00 per litre, the lowest petrol price seen since January 2022.

It’s important to remember that these figures are based on unaudited data. The final fuel price adjustments will only be confirmed once the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources makes its official announcement, expected early this week.

These anticipated reductions follow January’s fuel price cuts, which saw petrol prices drop by up to 66 cents per litre and diesel slashed by as much as R1.50 per litre.

Stronger rand doing the heavy lifting

The current over-recovery on fuel prices is largely thanks to a stronger rand and lower international product prices. Currency movements alone are contributing about 36 cents to the expected petrol price decrease.

The rand recently strengthened below R16 to the US dollar for the first time in nearly four years, helped by a weaker US currency and improved confidence in the local economy. Better electricity stability and a strong agricultural season have also played a role.

That said, global oil prices remain the wildcard. Brent crude has been volatile towards the end of January, and any sharp move upwards could quickly put the brakes on South Africa’s fuel price relief run.