R10 Diesel Hike on the Cards as April Fuel Prices Threaten to Break Records

South Africa’s transport industry could be heading into one of its toughest fuel cost periods yet, with early projections showing diesel prices may surge by close to R10 per litre from 1 April 2026.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund points to massive under-recoveries in the current fuel cycle, with estimates sitting at around R9.67 for 500ppm diesel and R9.81 for 50ppm diesel. If these figures hold, diesel could push past the R30 per litre mark for the first time in the country’s history.

Petrol is not spared either. Current projections show increases of between R5.18 and R5.72 per litre, bringing inland 95 unleaded dangerously close to its historical peak levels.

The spike is largely being driven by global oil volatility, with Brent Crude oil climbing sharply during March. Prices jumped from an average of around $69 per barrel in the previous review cycle to roughly $95, fuelled by ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Although oil prices have shown slight signs of easing in recent days, the timing is too late to significantly influence April’s fuel price adjustment.

Adding further pressure is the fuel tax increase announced by Enoch Godongwana during the 2026 Budget Speech. From 1 April, motorists will face an additional 21 cents per litre, made up of increases to the General Fuel Levy, Carbon Levy, and Road Accident Fund Levy.

For truckers, fleets, and logistics operators, this is where things start getting rough. Diesel remains the backbone of freight movement, and a jump of this scale will hit operating costs immediately.

The development also follows closely on the heels of a recently leaked communication showing how a major supplier, TotalEnergies Marketing South Africa, had already guided service stations to begin gradually increasing diesel prices ahead of the official adjustment. That move effectively brought forward the pain for operators, even before April kicks in.

Now, with the official adjustment looming, the full impact is set to land across the entire supply chain.

Higher diesel costs will filter straight into transport rates, pushing up the cost of moving goods across the country. From groceries to construction materials, the knock-on effect will be felt everywhere.