Fuel prices are expected to drop across the board, bringing much needed relief to South African motorists. Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a strong recovery in favour of consumers, thanks to lower global oil prices and a surprisingly firm rand.
According to the CEF’s latest indicators, petrol is set for a significant over-recovery of between 55 and 57 cents per litre, while diesel is showing an over-recovery of about 21 cents per litre. Even illuminating paraffin, which initially showed signs of a price hike, has now moved closer to an over-recovery.
If these trends hold until the end of the month, the expected fuel price adjustments for November 2025 could look like this:
- Petrol 93: ↓ 42 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: ↓ 38 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↓ 6 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↓ 4 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: ↑ 3 cents per litre
The key driver behind this positive outlook is the drop in global oil prices, which have settled below $65 a barrel, down from the $66–$69 range seen in September. This comes as tensions in the Middle East ease and OPEC+ nations agree to raise production quotas, boosting global supply.
Adding to the good news, the rand has been punching above its weight, recently hitting a 12-month best at R17.12 to the US dollar, before stabilising around R17.30. Economists say this strength has helped soften import costs for fuel, even though the dollar’s recent weakness has played a bigger role than local economic factors.
Whatever the cause, drivers are set to benefit at the pumps, and after a year of steep fuel hikes and tight margins for the transport sector, a bit of relief is long overdue.
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