Record Fuel Price Hike Looming for April as Middle East Tensions Rock Oil Markets

South African motorists, especially transport operators, may soon be facing one of the biggest fuel price shocks in recent memory. Early projections suggest diesel and petrol prices could surge dramatically in April if current global oil trends continue.

The spike comes as tensions in the Middle East escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply moves. Following reported US–Israel strikes on Iran, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively closed the strait, sending shockwaves through global energy markets.

As a result, Brent Crude Oil briefly surged to nearly $120 per barrel before settling around $86 at the time of writing. When global oil prices climb, South Africa feels the pinch quickly due to its reliance on imported fuel.

Data from the Central Energy Fund indicates that if current trends persist, South Africans could see the following increases in April:

• 95 Unleaded petrol: +R3.34 per litre
• 93 Unleaded petrol: +R3.12 per litre
• Diesel (0.05% sulphur): +R5.66 per litre
• Diesel (0.005% sulphur): +R5.78 per litre

And that is before government levies kick in.

During the 2026 South African Budget Speech, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana confirmed an additional 21 cents per litre in fuel taxes from 1 April. This includes increases to the general fuel levy, the carbon levy, and the Road Accident Fund levy.

Put together, the numbers paint a worrying picture for the transport sector. The price of 0.005% diesel could climb by nearly R6 per litre, potentially pushing pump prices to new record levels.

For truck operators already battling rising toll fees, maintenance costs, and tight freight margins, a jump of that size could hit hard. Diesel remains the lifeblood of the logistics industry, and any major spike quickly filters through the entire supply chain.

For context, South Africa’s highest petrol price on record was reached in July 2022 when inland 95 unleaded hit R26.74 per litre after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent global oil markets into turmoil.

Fuel levy hikes ripple through economy as freight sector warns of deeper strain

At the moment, March prices stand at about R20.19 per litre for inland 93 petrol, R20.30 for 95 petrol, and roughly R18.60 for diesel (0.005%).

However, fuel price forecasts can change quickly. The Central Energy Fund bases its projections on early-month data, meaning the final adjustment for April will depend heavily on how the Middle East situation unfolds in the coming weeks.

For now, fleet owners across South Africa will be watching the oil markets closely. If the Strait of Hormuz situation drags on, April could bring a serious dent to already thin operating margins.