South Africa’s Fuel Price Crisis, Will Diesel Hit R40 in May and What It Means for Truckers

South Africa’s trucking industry is bracing for another tough month as fuel price pressures continue to build, with early projections pointing to a sharp diesel increase in May.

Motorists were already hit hard in April, with petrol rising by R3.06 per litre and diesel jumping by between R7.37 and R7.51. Despite a temporary R3-per-litre tax relief, inland diesel prices climbed close to R26 wholesale, translating to pump prices of around R28 to R29.

Will R40 diesel become a reality?

Now the big question on every operator’s mind is whether diesel could push as high as R40 per litre.

While that remains a worst-case scenario, current data suggests a less severe outcome, provided the fragile Middle East ceasefire holds and oil prices stay below $100 per barrel.

According to Central Energy Fund data, earlier projections showed an under-recovery of R9.61 for diesel. However, more recent daily figures indicate a lower under-recovery of around R3.73, reflecting some stability after the ceasefire.

What can we realistically expect in May?

Based on current trends, diesel is expected to increase by roughly R6 per litre in May. This would push retail prices into the region of R33 to R35 per litre.

The temporary R3 fuel levy relief, which is set to run until early May, could offer some breathing room if extended. But if it falls away, the full impact of the increase will hit the industry directly.

Petrol prices are also expected to rise, although at a lower rate, with increases projected between R1.80 and R3.19 depending on the final data.

Why fuel prices are still unstable

The ongoing tension in the Middle East continues to drive uncertainty in global oil markets. While diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran are ongoing, no firm resolution has been reached.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, remains a major risk factor. Any disruption there could quickly push oil prices higher again.

Although markets have shown some stability in recent days, the situation remains unpredictable, and fuel price forecasts can shift quickly depending on geopolitical developments.

What this means for truckers and transporters

From a trucking perspective, a move into the mid-R30 range is already a serious concern.

Fuel is one of the biggest cost drivers in transport, and increases of this scale put immediate pressure on operators to adjust. Long-haul routes like the N3 become significantly more expensive to run, especially for fleets operating on tight margins.

Smaller operators are likely to feel the pressure first, as they often cannot adjust rates quickly enough to keep up with rising costs.

In response, many transporters may be forced to introduce or increase fuel surcharges, costs that will eventually filter through the supply chain and impact consumers across the country.

The reality is simple, while R40 diesel may not be imminent, the steady climb towards R33 to R35 is already enough to strain the industry.

For now, truckers would do well to prepare for another expensive month on the road, with all eyes on global developments in the weeks ahead.